Salzburger Tageblatt - Metro Vancouver and Fraser Valley Home Sales Forecast to Rebound in 2027

Home sales in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley are projected to climb by approximately nine percent in 2027, signaling a modest recovery after two years of declining activity. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its fourth-quarter 2026 housing forecast on Tuesday, outlining a market that remains constrained by high inventory and economic headwinds despite an expected uptick in transaction volumes.

BCREA anticipates that 2026 will conclude with just over 67,000 home sales across the region. This figure represents a 4.5 percent decline from the 70,186 transactions recorded in 2025 and follows a steeper 5.7 percent year-over-year drop in the previous year. However, the association projects that sales across British Columbia will increase by 7.2 percent to reach 71,840 units in 2027. This growth would add 4,815 transactions compared with the current year’s forecast.

Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA’s chief economist, noted that economic difficulties continue to make potential buyers reluctant to enter the market. "Ultimately, we expect a modest recovery in home sales in 2027 as the impacts of new United States tariffs fade and fixed mortgage rates decline," Ogmundson said.

While transaction volumes are expected to recover, price growth is forecast to be significantly slower. A large supply of homes for sale is exerting downward pressure on values. BCREA reported that the number of active listings is approaching its highest level since 2015, with a substantial inventory of new homes adding to this competitive environment.

Province-wide, the average residential sale price is expected to fall by 1.2 percent to $941,200 in 2026, down from $952,719 in 2025. BCREA attributes much of this decrease to weaker conditions in the Lower Mainland’s more expensive markets. For 2027, the provincial average is forecast to rise by 2.4 percent to $964,200, an increase of $23,000 over the projected 2026 average.

The outlook varies significantly between the jurisdictions of Greater Vancouver Realtors (GVR) and the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB). GVR’s jurisdiction spans much of Metro Vancouver, including Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, West Vancouver, North Vancouver City, North Vancouver District, Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows, South Delta, and Bowen Island, along with Squamish, Whistler, and the Sunshine Coast. FVREB covers a major portion of Metro Vancouver, including Surrey, Langley City, Langley Township, White Rock, and North Delta, as well as the Fraser Valley communities of Abbotsford and Mission.

In GVR, the projected three percent sales decline in 2026 follows a 10.2 percent drop in 2025. The anticipated recovery in 2027 would bring 2,000 more transactions than the 2026 forecast, lifting annual sales by 8.7 percent to 25,000 units. Average home prices within GVR are expected to recover gradually, rising from $1.223 million in 2026 to $1.25 million in 2027. This uptick of $27,000, or 2.2 percent, would place GVR’s average sale price just 0.8 percent above its 2025 level.

FVREB faces a steeper price adjustment before its expected recovery. Its average home sale price is projected to fall by 4.8 percent to $962,900 in 2026, bringing the annual average below $1 million for the first time in recent years. An anticipated 1.8 percent average home price increase in 2027 would add $17,100, bringing the average to $980,000. Even with that gain, the average would remain about $31,800, or 3.1 percent, below the 2025 average.

The total number of homes sold within FVREB is forecast to fall by 4.4 percent to 11,000 in 2026, following a sharp 16.6 percent decline in 2025. BCREA expects 12,000 sales in 2027, representing a 9.1 percent year-over-year increase. Together, GVR and FVREB would account for 3,000 of the additional 4,815 sales forecast across British Columbia in 2027, representing approximately 62 percent of the year-over-year provincial increase.

Federal measures outlined in last week’s 2026 budget could also influence the housing market’s recovery. Maintaining immigration levels below earlier peaks may continue to restrain growth in housing demand. Conversely, providing a pathway to permanent residency for up to 200,000 temporary residents already in Canada by the end of 2027 could give some households greater confidence to buy.

Additionally, the federal government’s planned exemption for new homes from the foreign homebuyer ban could attract additional buyers and investment. This policy may help developers sell unsold homes and finance construction, potentially affecting sales, prices, and housing supply. The impact of these measures will depend on their implementation and buyers’ purchasing power.

However, potential new momentum could be offset by rising borrowing costs. On October 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate by 0.25 percent to 2.5 percent in response to inflation concerns stemming from rising oil prices due to the U.S.-led war in Iran. This marked the central bank’s first increase since July 2023. The Bank has left the door open to further hikes, with its final scheduled decision of 2026 set for December 9. Another increase could raise variable mortgage costs and reduce buyers’ purchasing power, potentially slowing the housing market’s recovery in 2027.

BCREA’s data on real home sale volumes and average prices is based on its compilation of monthly statistics reports provided by real estate boards across the province.

K.Zehetner--SbgTB